U.K. 7 MAY 2015 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS
A note by Eamon Henry. Date 15th May 2015
A note by Eamon Henry. Date 15th May 2015
Numerical results below are taken from Wikipedia, with two sets of
calculations by the author, namely Table 1 column 3 party percentage shares of
total number of votes, and column 5 derived number of seats pro rata party percentage
shares of total number of votes. The total turnout of 66.1 percent of the total
electorate may be considered rather low, for such an important expected outcome
of no party majority, although in fact a Conservative overall majority
resulted.
Table 1 Main Results by Party, with derived
percentages and proportional seat numbers
Party
(1)
|
Votes, number
(2)
|
Votes, party percentage of total
(3)
|
Seats, number, actual
(4) |
Seats, number pro rata col. 3 percent share of votes (5)
|
Conservative
|
11,334,920
|
36.932
|
331
|
240
|
Labour
|
9,344,328
|
30.446
|
232
|
198
|
U.K. Ind. Party
|
3,881,129
|
12.646
|
1
|
82
|
Lib. Dem.
|
2,415,888
|
7.871
|
8
|
51
|
Scottish Nat. P.
|
1,454, 436
|
4.739
|
56
|
31
|
Green
|
1,157, 613
|
3.772
|
1
|
25
|
Dem. Union. P.
|
184,260
|
0.600
|
8
|
4
|
Plaid Cymru
|
181,694
|
0.592
|
3
|
4
|
Sinn Fein
|
176,232
|
0.574
|
4
|
4
|
Ulster Union. P..
|
114,935
|
0.374
|
2
|
2
|
Soc Dem.& L. P.
|
99,809
|
0.325
|
3
|
2
|
Others
|
346,436
|
1.129
|
1
|
7
|
TOTAL
|
30,691,680
|
100.000
|
650
|
650
|
We see that the Conservative actual 331 seats far exceeded their warranted 240 seats based on party vote share. Likewise, Labour’s 232 seats exceeded their warranted 198 seats. U.K.I.P. ‘s getting nearly 4 million votes, for only 1 actual seat versus warranted 82 seats, might argue a need for some different election system , as an improvement on that in place. The same argument could be made for the Lib. Dem. (8 actual versus 51 warranted) and Green (1 actual versus 25 warranted). In the other direction, the Scottish Nat. Party actual 56 seats far exceeded their warranted 31 seats based on vote number shares.
This writer proposes a more equitable outcome, as follows. Combine the
present 650 constituencies by adjoining pairs into 325 constituencies, and
elect 325 M.P.s as at present. Then subtract out the votes (total or some high
share) obtained by these 325 winners, and combine all the remaining votes into
a national total, subdivided by party. Then allocate the remaining 325 seats
pro rata party shares. In this situation U.K. I.P. would certainly obtain many
more seats than just the 1 now obtained, and Lib. Dem. would also obtain more.
In an arguably better sense, no votes
would be wasted. The writer thinks that a voting system along these lines
already exists, possibly in Germany, or in some other European countries.
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