Friday, April 16, 2010


CARLOW DAY TRIP 14 APRIL 2010
A note by Eamon Henry. Date 15 April 2010


A very enjoyable day trip to Carlow town was made on Wednesday 14th April 2010 by eight members of the Active Senior IT Society (ASITS). The main objective was to visit the Visual Centre for Contemporary Arts in Carlow town. We were organised and led by Mrs. Angela Hickey, and set off by bus from the Dublin Busaras at 10.30 a.m.

A cool dry cloudy morning accompanied us on our way to Carlow, which we reached about 12.00 noon.
We enjoyed a leisurely lunch of nice food at Lennon’s Bar located in the Centre. Then, around 2.00 p.m. our guide Mrs. Eilish O’Neill arrived, to take us on a conducted tour of the various rooms which hold the items on display. Mrs. O’Neill told us that the Centre itself had won a prize for its layout and design, including lighting effects. We were not able to visit the George Bernard Shaw Theatre, which is closed to the public at present.
The main painting exhibits are by the artist Sean Scully and comprise several abstract designs in vertical and horizontal bars, with variation in colouring. Our guide told us that some of these items are rather famous, among those who understand abstract art, and that they have high market values. However, such paintings are light-years away from the sunlit landscapes and Old Masters’ studies of humans and other animals, enjoyed by simple-minded folks like ourselves.

Among the structural items there was a large sphere comprising a buff-coloured plastic cover surrounding air or some other gas. Press your ear against it and you can hear the noise of traffic – maybe just what we all need. Another structure was the shape of a lorry-load of waste paper, almost completely made from waste paper. A wide variety of moving art shapes and sounds were also on display, driven by DVD technology.
As might be expected, only a small fraction of the available space is in use to hold what is on display, because the Visual Centre is less than five years old. Our guide provided excellent comment on what is present, but to appreciate these works of art more fully, some education is definitely needed by viewers like ourselves.


On emerging from the Visual Centre, we found the sun shining from a clear sky, and showing off to great advantage the numerous daffodils in full bloom along our way. Our next port of call was the Catholic Cathedral, built about 1830 and typical of such buildings of that time, with much stonework in its walls and a pointed spire. It is of modest size on the inside, but showing in full brilliance the colours of its stained-glass windows lit up by the afternoon sun. These window pictures represent angels and saints and the central foundation events of Christianity.
After a coffee-break we moved to the river Barrow, where local people were feeding a large gathering of swans of varying ages, the younger ones showing brown plumage among the white. Then we moved on to get the return bus, which set out about 5.00 p.m. and reached Dublin City Centre at roughly 6.45 p.m.

This could be remembered as the end of a perfect day.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010


CHURCH NEWS

Submitted by Eamon Henry,

29 January 2010

They're Back! Those wonderful Church Bulletins! Thank God for church secretaries with typewriters. These sentences (with all the BLOOPERS) actually appeared in church bulletins or were announced in church services

The Fasting & Prayer Conference includes meals.--------------------------

The sermon this morning: 'Jesus Walks on the Water.' The sermon tonight: 'Searching for Jesus.'--------------------------

Ladies, don't forget the rummage sale... It's a chance to get rid of those things not worth keeping around the house. Bring your husbands.--------------------------

Remember in prayer the many who are sick of our community. Smile at someone who is hard to love. Say 'Hell' to someone who doesn't care much about you.---------------------------------
Don't let worry kill you off - let the Church help..--------------------------

Miss Charlene Mason sang 'I will not pass this way again,' giving obvious pleasure to the congregation.--------------------------

For those of you who have children and don't know it, we have a nursery downstairs.--------------------------

Next Thursday there will be tryouts for the choir. They need all the help they can get.--------------------------

Irving Benson and Jessie Carter were married on October 24 in the church. So ends a friendship that began in their school days.--------------------------

A bean supper will be held on Tuesday evening in the church hall. Music will follow.--------------------------
At the evening service tonight, the sermon topic will be 'What Is Hell?' Come early and listen to our choir practice.--------------------------

Eight new choir robes are currently needed due to the addition of several new members and to the deterioration of some older ones.--------------------------

Scouts are saving aluminum cans, bottles and other items to be recycled. Proceeds will be used to cripple children.--------------------------

Please place your donation in the envelope along with the deceased person you want remembered.--------------------------

The church will host an evening of fine dining, super entertainment and gracious hostility.--------------------------

Potluck supper Sunday at 5:00 PM - prayer and medication to follow.--------------------------

The ladies of the Church have cast off clothing of every kind. They may be seen in the basement on Friday afternoon.--------------------------

This evening at 7 PM there will be a hymn singing in the park across from the Church Bring a blanket and come prepared to sin.--------------------------

Ladies Bible Study will be held Thursday morning at 10 AM. All ladies are invited to lunch in the Fellowship Hall after the B S. is done.--------------------------

The pastor would appreciate it if the ladies of the Congregation would lend him their electric girdles for the pancake breakfast next Sunday.--------------------------

Low Self Esteem Support Group will meet Thursday at 7 PM.. Please use the back door.--------------------------

The eighth-graders will be presenting Shakespeare's Hamlet in the Church basement Friday at 7 PM. The congregation is invited to attend this tragedy.--------------------------

Weight Watchers will meet at 7 PM at the First Presbyterian Church. Please use large double door at the side entrance.--------------------------

The Associate Minister unveiled the church's new campaign slogan last Sunday: 'I Upped My Pledge - Up Yours.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009


REFERENDUM 2009 RESULTS: IRELAND ON LISBON TREATY


A note by Eamon Henry. 8 October 2009

This short discussion offers a statistical (regression) analysis of the Irish (2 October 2009) Referendum results, of voting for the second time on the Lisbon Treaty. For a turnout of 58.0 percent, there was a YES vote of 67.1 percent of turnout, implying a NO vote of 32.9 percent. For results of the 12 June 2008 Referendum, see the Henry article on http://www.asits.blogspot.com/ , of title “Referendum Results, Actual and Possible”.

Readers not familiar with statistical analysis are asked to accept “on faith” the results presented below via “Simple Regression” analysis of YES percentage as depending on TURNOUT percentage across all 43 constituencies.

The next paragraph gives results in technical format.

There follows a non-technical discussion.

The actual Yes and Turnout percentages, by constituency, are given as an appendix table below, having been extracted by me from the Irish Times of 5 October 2009. The “Data Desk” software package has been used by me to give the regression results and a graph.
Of all 43 constituencies, only two gave a NO percentage result above 50, namely Donegal North East and Donegal South West.

The regression results are as follows and rather technical. For a fairly loose-fitting “Rsquared adjusted” of 15.8 percent, a highly significant (99.5 percent probable) positive coefficient emerged, namely an average 0.758 percent Yes extra for every 1 percent extra turnout. This coefficient has a “standard error” of 0.254. The regression constant has value 22.58 (not significant) with its standard error of value 14.78.
We can estimate a YES percent value on the line of regression as follows. For a turnout of 50 percent, the regression estimate of YES percentage is given by constant plus 50 times the regression coefficient, namely 22.58 + 50X0.758 = 22.58 + 37.90 = 60.48 percent YES. A further 8 percent turnout, to match the actual, would add a further 8X0.758 = 6.06 percent Yes, thus giving a regression estimate of 66.54 percent Yes, close to the actual 67.1 percent quoted in the first paragraph above.

It is of interest to quote corresponding results of the Referendum of 12 June 2008. For a turnout of 53.1 percent of the electorate, there was a Yes vote of only 46.6 percent. Similar regression analysis gave an “Rsquared adjusted” of 13.0 percent, a highly significant (99 percent probable) positive coefficient 0.779 percent extra YES for every 1 percent extra Turnout. This coefficient had a “standard error” of value 0.289. The regression constant had value 4.66 (not significant) with standard error of value 15.39. We may note that the coefficient here is close to the October 2009 value 0.758 quoted above, but the constant here is much smaller (some 18 percentage points) than that of October 2009.
Here again we can estimate a Yes percentage on the line of regression. For a turnout of 50 percent, the regression estimate of YES percentage is given by constant plus 50 times the regression coefficient, namely 4.66 + 50X0.779 = 4.66 + 38.95 = 43.61 percent YES. A further 3.1 percent turnout, to match the actual, would add a further 3.1X0.779 =2.41 percent Yes, thus giving a regression estimate of 46.02 percent Yes, close to the actual 46.6 percent Yes quoted in the last paragraph above.

Appendix Table of Constituency Results, 2 October 2009

Constituency ---------Percent Turnout ------------Percent YES
Carlow-Kilkenny ---------------57.7---------------------------- 70.5
Cavan-Monaghan-------------- 58.1 ----------------------------62.0
Clare ---------------------------56.1---------------------------- 72.3
Cork East ----------------------56.6---------------------------- 66.1
Cork North Central -------------59.6 ----------------------------55.8
Cork North West--------------- 59.4---------------------------- 69.5
Cork South Central------------- 60.3---------------------------- 66.8
Cork South West ----------------59.5 ----------------------------67.2
Donegal North East -------------50.1 ----------------------------48.5
Donegal South West -------------51.1 ---------------------------49.7
Dublin Central ------------------53.3 ---------------------------61.9
Dublin Mid West ----------------55.3 ---------------------------61.5
Dublin North --------------------60.9--------------------------- 72.7
Dublin North Central------------ 65.6 ----------------------------71.1
Dublin North East ---------------63.4 ---------------------------63.5
Dublin North West --------------57.6---------------------------- 55.0
Dublin South --------------------57.6 ----------------------------81.7
Dublin South West --------------57.2 ----------------------------58.9
Dublin South Central ------------55.5 ----------------------------58.0
Dublin South East ---------------54.7---------------------------- 78.7
Dublin West ---------------------59.1 ----------------------------68.5
Dun Laoghaire------------------- 70.7 ----------------------------81.2
Galway East ---------------------54.8 ----------------------------68.1
Galway West --------------------53.1 -----------------------------66.3
Kerry North ---------------------55.4 ----------------------------63.6
Kerry South--------------------- 57.9---------------------------- 66.4
Kildare North --------------------56.6 ----------------------------76.2
Kildare South-------------------- 54.3 -----------------------------69.7
Laois-Offaly ---------------------57.5 -----------------------------73.2
Limerick East --------------------56.5 ----------------------------67.4
Limerick West -------------------56.2---------------------------- 69.3
Longford-Westmeath ------------55.4---------------------------- 65.6
Louth ----------------------------58.2 ----------------------------61.0
Mayo ----------------------------56.2 ----------------------------61.7
Meath East -----------------------54.9 ----------------------------72.3
Meath West---------------------- 60.5 ----------------------------64.9
Roscommon-SthLeitrim--------- 65.0 -----------------------------66.0
Sligo-NorthLeitrim --------------57.7------------------------------- 64.5
Tipperary North -----------------63.5 -----------------------------70.4
Tipperary South -----------------59.6 -----------------------------68.4
Waterford -----------------------59.6 -----------------------------68.5
Wexford -------------------------57.3 ------------------------------65.2
Wicklow -------------------------64.3 -------------------------------70.7

Monday, August 31, 2009

MODELLING THE SUN’S ALTITUDE FROM SUNRISE TO NOON

A note by Eamon Henry, 5 August 2009


Foreword:This note follows the Henry note of 27 July 2009 “How warm is the summer sun!”, now available on http://www.asits.blogspot.com/. The trigonometric model which gives results presented below uses two formulae appearing in a 14-page document “Spherical Trigonometry” available on the web at www.krysstal.com/sphertrig.html. This interesting article even gives 2 pages of (in effect) a “do it you yourself kit” for building your own sundial (just what we all need!!).The Henry Excel 97-2003 worksheet “Sunrise to Noon Sun Altitudes­_rev1”(3 July 2009) gives model results for midsummer day and midwinter day, at 15-minute intervals, computed by him. At present the ASITS blogspot is not able to carry an Excel worksheet as such. Table 1 following gives summary results for 30-minute (0.5- hour) intervals.
Results:
Table 1: Model estimates of Sun’s altitude at Dublin from Sunrise to Noon, Midsummer and Midwinter
Time, local, hours
Midsummer altitude, degrees
Midwinter altitude, degrees
12.00
60.0
13.0
11.30
59.8
12.7
11.00
59.3
11.8
10.30
58.5
10.2
10.00
57.3
8.0
9.30
55.7
5.1
9.00
53.6
1.5
8.48

0.0
8.30
51.1

8.00
48.0

7.30
44.3

7.00
40.0

6.30
35.1

6.00
29.7

5.30
24.0

5.00
18.3

4.30
12.7

4.00
7.4

3.30
2.6

3.12
0.0

“Local time” means calibration so that noon (Sun due south) is 12.00 hours, and thus for Dublin some 25 minutes later than Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) noon, because Dublin is about 6.25 degrees West (longitude); Sun due east will be at 6.00 hours local time, for Earth’s rotation 15 degrees per hour. Thus, in “Azimuth” terms, direction East is 90 degrees away from South, and direction West is 90 degrees away in the opposite direction, as for “Azimuth” angles to be used for model applications described below. “AZIMUTH is the angular distance from the north or south point of the horizon to the intersection with the horizon of a vertical circle passing through a given celestial body” (page 97 of the Oxford Encyclopedic English Dictionary, 1991 edition).

How the Model differs from the Real-World Situation:The model gives 21 June Sunrise as occurring at 3h 12m a.m. The actual Dublin sunrise time is about 3h31m local time, some 19 minutes later. For 21 December, the model gives Sunrise as at 8h48m local time, compared with actual 8h15m local time, some 33 minutes earlier. On page 11 of “Spherical Trigonometry” a calculation is made for Sunrise times at London. The azimuth angles are 39.62 degrees north of east (3h21.2m am local time) and 39.62 degrees south of east (8h38.5m am local time). My Diary 2009 gives London 20 June sunrise as 3h43m, about 22 minutes later, and London 19 December sunrise as 8h03m a.m., some 35 minutes earlier. So the model is wrong in a consistent way, it seems.
One reason for these differences is that the model implicitly assumes that the Earth’s orbit is a circle about the Sun, and thus completely regular. But in fact the orbit is an ellipse with the Sun at one focus, and our distance from the Sun ranges from 147 million kilometers in December to 152 million in June (page 9 of Patrick Moore: “Exploring the Night Sky with Binoculars”). However, the model gives no discrepancy for the Spring and Autumn equinoxes, 21 March and 23 September, with sunrise at 6.00 hours local time everywhere. Altitudes are not calculated for one of these, in the attached Excel sheet, but can be readily derived by changing a few parameters of the model, as will be indicated below.
Note that the model gives exactly 12 hours as the sum of the times from sunrise to noon, 8h48m midsummer plus 3h12m midwinter. The actual sum is about 12h15m, meaning that the Northern Hemisphere does in fact get more Sun-time than the Southern Hemisphere.
Because of these model discrepancies, I am re-calculating (in the Postscript section below) the relative per-hour intensities of the Sunshine for midsummer versus midwinter, as given in my previous note of 27 July 2009. For the summer sunrise situation, one might estimate actual Sun’s altitudes (angles of elevation) by going to the model altitude at least 15 minutes earlier: take the 5.45 hours altitude 26.9 degrees as estimating actual altitude at 6.00 hours, and take model 8.45 hours altitude 52.4 degrees as estimating actual altitude at 9.00 hours. My own estimates (for these times) used in my note of 27 July were 23 degrees and 47 degrees, respectively.Of course, both model and actual altitudes coincide at local noon, so they must gradually come closer as the morning progresses.
Technical description of the Model:The main equation I use is on page 8 of “Spherical Trigonometry” as follows:
sin(D) = sin(L)*cos(Z) – cos(L)*sin(Z)*cos(A)………………………………….. (1)
The sign * means “multiplied by”.I use latin letters where the text uses greek letters. D is the angle of declination (latitude on the Celestial Sphere) of some star, in our case the Sun, at 0 degrees for the equinoxes, 23.5 for summer solstice and -23.5 degrees for winter solstice. L is the Latitude of the point of observation, for Dublin about 53.5 degrees North, for Oxford about 51.6 degrees North. Z is the “Zenith distance”, given as 90 degrees less the Altitude(angle of elevation) of a star (in our case the Sun). A is the Azimuth, measured in degrees from direction South (e.g. direction East has azimuth value “minus 90 degrees”). Here a comment on the Celestial Sphere is in order. At Greenwich at noon on 21st March (spring equinox), the Sun is at location (0,0) on the Celestial Sphere, whose equator coincides with the imaginary circle where the plane of Earth’s equator cuts this visual sphere of stars etc. around the Earth. Longitude is called “Right Ascension” and latitude is called “Declination”. The north pole of the Celestial Sphere is directly above Earth’s north pole, its axis of rotation coinciding with that of Earth.
Let us get the Sunrise equation from equation (1) above. For altitude zero degrees, Z has value 90 degrees, Cos (Z) is zero and sin (Z) has value 1. Thus equation (1) reduces to:
Sin(D) = -cos(L)* cos(A), which can be written cos(A) = - sin(D) / cos(L),………..(2)
And we can write it as cos (A)= sin(D)/cos (L), if we measure A from North direction clockwise, i.e. East is 90 degrees. So, for D and L given we have A, measured from North direction. A gives the Sunrise azimuth angle, as each 15 degrees equal to one hour of time, measured from midnight onwards. For example, find the summer sunrise direction and time for Dublin:
cos(A) =sin 23.5/cos 53.5 (in degrees) = 0.398749/0.594823 =0.670366.A has value 47.90 degrees X 4 = 191.62 minutes of time after midnight (North direction) =3h11.6m a.m.
To use equation (1), see the column headings and function expressions on the Excel worksheet. D has value 23.5 for midsummer (Dublin). All trig calculations must have radian measure of angles, hence the columns of radian values. L has value 53.5 degrees. Angle A (azimuth) is progressed backwards in degrees negative from noon of value 0 degrees. Find Z from this equation for each specified value of azimuth A. In column I you put in estimated altitude values from noon known value 60 degrees back to 0 at time of sunrise. (At equinoxes, Sun’s noon altitude is given by 90-latitude 53.5=36.5; add 23.5 more for Sun coming up by 23.5 degrees (declination) so as to have noon altitude 60 degrees at midsummer).
Now calculate value of right-hand-side (RHS) of (1), and subtract it from left-hand-side to give error. Calculate value of Z-differential of RHS, which is –sin(L)*sin(z) – cos (L)*cos(Z)*cos (A), and divide the error by the latter, to give a Z correction, added on to first Z estimate. (This approach is called Newton’s Method of solving equations.) Re-calculate the RHS of (1) and again find error. These resulting errors are so small (see column R) that a second iteration (to find a further Z increment) is not warranted. So the amended Z is our solution in each row; subtract it (in degrees) from 90, and this is the required altitude (angle of elevation) of the Sun given by the model for that time of morning (as A expressed in time before noon) and shown in column X.
Obviously, Sun’s altitude calculations could be made for other times of year, for any specified Sun declination value D. The Sun’s declination throughout the year is shown on the “Ecliptic” curve on star maps. Just now (early August) it has an approximate value of 12.5 degrees, well below the 23.5 degrees of 21 June.
Postscript (21 August 2009)The right-hand columns Z to AI of the Henry Excel worksheet give detailed calculations of the average per-hour Sun intensity, midsummer and midwinter. In the note “How warm is the summer sun!” rough estimates of per-hour average square- metre areas were given as 3.39 for midsummer and 11.35 for midwinter. Revised figures are 3.419 and 8.587, respectively, as shown on the Excel worksheet. The midwinter area is considerably reduced, due to the Sun’s apparent curve (as given by the model) being well above the previous assumed straight-line movement from sunrise to noon, thus giving larger sine values with matching smaller 1/sine values and thus smaller areas.
These new results are calibrated to match 15-minute intervals from sunrise to noon, but again omitting first 1 degree altitude (elevation) of the Sun after sunrise. The time-factor multiplier is taken to be (for each 15-minute interval) the average time per 1 extra degree of the Sun’s altitude, based on the model results. The relative per-hour midsummer/midwinter intensity is now 2.512, given by 8.587/3.419.